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Global PV demand to hit 469 GW and 533 GW this year, says PV Infolink

Source：pv-magazine



As the global energy shift advances, PV InfoLink projects solar demand to reach 469–533 GW in 2024. However, key markets – China, the United States, Europe, and India – are challenged by supply-demand imbalances, policy shifts, and economic volatility that could reshape installation demand and weigh on growth after 2025.

While installations increase, essential grid updates lag, and rising interest rates and supply chain instability are squeezing returns.

China’s large-scale solar sector faces delays from slow grid expansions in Inner Mongolia and storage requirements that impact returns on distributed projects. Chinese solar demand is expected to hold at 240 GW to 260 GW in 2024, with a slight rise to 245 GW to 265 GW in 2025.

Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act and Critical Raw Materials Act aim to boost local green tech but may inflate project costs, while the planned Forced Labor Regulation could trigger EU probes into Chinese suppliers by 2027. Economic strain and limited grid capacity continue to affect Europe’s solar market, forecasted at 77 GW to 85 GW for 2024, with potential to reach 85 GW to 93 GW in 2025.

The US solar market faces tariff increases on imported cells and anti-dumping duties on Southeast Asian suppliers. Developers remain cautious due to high interest rates, policy uncertainty, and slow permitting, with California’s NEM 3.0 policy also hurting distributed solar returns. US solar demand in 2025 is estimated between 38 GW and 44 GW.

“Given the Republican-controlled House's repeated opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), subsidies for renewable energy under the IRA face heightened uncertainty if Trump is elected,” Jenny Lin, a PV research associate at InfoLink, told pv magazine.

India, one of the top five global solar markets, relies on government projects to meet its ambitious 2026 solar installation targets. Government initiatives could boost 2025 demand to 25 GW to 35 GW, representing 25% to 40% growth. The Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) will require local modules for government projects by 2026. Import tariffs of 25% on Chinese cells remain, with domestic production expected to gradually replace Chinese imports as capacity grows.

Global solar markets show complex supply-demand dynamics, with module prices nearing historic lows. Future growth depends on installation capacity and policy support. Emerging markets like Brazil, South Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are seeing rising demand, while countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam implement supportive policies. In Africa, large-scale projects continue despite infrastructure and grid challenges that may limit installations through 2025.

Although global growth may slow after 2025, emerging markets provide essential momentum, supporting stable development in the solar industry worldwide.

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